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KUALA LUMPUR: The upsides to the brewery and tobacco industries are expected to continue as they benefit from the gradual pick-up in tourism in the country.

According to Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research, tourist arrivals to the country have exceeded government expectations, leading to a higher revised target of 9.2 million from an initial two million.

"Nevertheless, this is still a far gap from pre-pandemic levels of 26.1m in 2019, suggesting there is still more legs for the recovery trend to continue into 2023," it added in a sector update.

It said a potential China reopening in 2023 looks increasingly likely, which would be a boon to tourism as Chinese tourists accounted for 11.9% of tourists pre-pandemic.

Further, brewers are expected to see some relief in cost pressure as barley and aluminium prices continue to fall while demand inelasticity will support sales amid the risk of inflationary pressure, higher interest rates and economic slowdown.

Meanwhile, tobacco players could see improved prospects as the implementation of the Control of Tobacco Product and Smoking Bill 2022 is expected to be deferred following its reintroduction from the first reading in the Dewan Rakyat.

"When asked whether the 'Generational End-Game (GEG)' will continue to be implemented, Health Minister Dr Zaliha Mustafa stressed that decision-making cannot be 'drastic', but must be 'incremental'.

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"With this, we reiterate our view that the legislative path of the Tobacco Bill will be challenging," said HLIB.

The research firm said investors are cognisant of the impact of the GEG and will be focused on near-term catalyst drivers for tobacco, which could be sparked by variables such as the declining illicit market share and the absence of the Prosperity Tax in 2023.

In addition, the government's clampdown on smuggled tobacco and alcoholic beverages is expected to lift earnings for the respective companies.

HLIB has "buy" calls on both Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Bhd and Heineken Malaysia Bhd with target prices of RM30.77 and RM31.18 respectively.

It also has a "buy" on British American Tobacco (Malaysia) Bhd with a target price of RM12.08.


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